Manuscript Title:

INVESTIGATION OF A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE PERFORMANCE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR PANELS USING MACHINE LEARNING

Author:

DJAMILA BENARBIA, ABDELMADJID MOULGADA, MOHAMMED EL SALLAH ZAGANE, ABDELKADER KHEDDAOUI, ILYES MUSTAPHA BENSAHRAOUI

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.15373022

Published : 2025-05-10

About the author(s)

1. DJAMILA BENARBIA - Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ibn Khaldoun University of Tiaret, Algeria.
2. ABDELMADJID MOULGADA - Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ibn Khaldoun University of Tiaret, Algeria. LMPM, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sidi Bel Abbes, BP 89, City Ben Mhidi, Sidi Bel Abbes, Algeria.
3. MOHAMMED EL SALLAH ZAGANE - Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ibn Khaldoun University of Tiaret, Algeria. LMPM, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sidi Bel Abbes, BP 89, City Ben Mhidi, Sidi Bel Abbes, Algeria.
4. ABDELKADER KHEDDAOUI - Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ibn Khaldoun University of Tiaret, Algeria.
5. ILYES MUSTAPHA BENSAHRAOUI - Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ibn Khaldoun University of Tiaret, Algeria.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

The energy sector is currently changing towards renewable energy, such as photovoltaic solar, to the detriment of traditional fossil fuels. This growth is driven by the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, solar energy production has an inherent dependence on weather conditions. Indeed, increasing the ambient temperature beyond a certain threshold can lead to a significant reduction in the efficiency of photovoltaic cells. This phenomenon is linked to the increase in the electrical resistance of the semiconductor materials constituting the cells, which limits the circulation of electrical charges, thus compromising the production of electricity and reducing the efficiency of photovoltaic installations. The aim of this work is to contribute to the search for a model for predicting maximum powers in photovoltaic systems, using methods based on approaches offered in machine learning. This manuscript presents an analysis of the state functioning in photovoltaic cells under the effect of temperature’s variations, linked to meteorological censuses over the last 45 years in six regions of North-West Algeria. A parametric study is carried out using the PVsyst software to indicate the significant impact of different factors on energy production. Next, an assessment of the prediction models is developed using machine learning. At the end of this study, two prediction models are compared and tested in order to satisfy the concordance and reliability of the results.


Keywords

Photovoltaic Panels, Climate Change, Maximum Powers, Machine Learning, Prediction Models.