Manuscript Title:

RUNOFF SIMULATION IN THE UPPER INDUS BASIN USING HEC-HMS AND GIS-BASED MODELING TECHNIQUES

Author:

MUHAMMAD SAFDAR, MUHAMMAD RASHID, AAMIR RAZA, NALAIN E MUHAMMAD, WASIQ FAROOQ, ABDUL RAUF, REHAN MEHMOOD SABIR

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.17225100

Published : 2025-09-23

About the author(s)

1. MUHAMMAD SAFDAR - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan. National Centre of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA)-Agricultural Remote Sensing Lab (ARSL), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan.
2. MUHAMMAD RASHID - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan.
3. AAMIR RAZA - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan. Precision Agriculture Centre, Department of Soil, Water and Climate, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA.
4. NALAIN E MUHAMMAD - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan.
5. WASIQ FAROOQ - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan. National Centre of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA)-Agricultural Remote Sensing Lab (ARSL), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan.
6. ABDUL RAUF - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan.
7. REHAN MEHMOOD SABIR - Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan. National Centre of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA)-Agricultural Remote Sensing Lab (ARSL), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Punjab, Pakistan.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

Water, a vital resource for life and agriculture, faces escalating global scarcity, especially in developing countries where irrigation consumes most freshwater, highlighting the urgent need for better planning and management despite limited hydrological data. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was applied to simulate runoff in the Gilgit River Basin, a key tributary of the Upper Indus Basin. The model integrates meteorological and spatial datasets from 1984 to 1998 to perform continuous runoff simulation. Using ArcGIS and the HEC-Geo HMS extension, the watershed was delineated, sub-basins identified, and key hydrological parameters were derived. Model calibration was conducted using observed streamflow data for the year 1984 and extended to a 10-year period, followed by validation for the years 1995 to 1998. The model showed satisfactory performance with RMSE, SSR, and PWRMSE errors of 8.5%, 9.6%, and 3.4% respectively. The results indicate the suitability of HEC-HMS for hydrological simulation and runoff forecasting in the Upper Indus Basin and highlight its potential for sustainable water resource planning in the region.


Keywords

HEC-HMS, GIS, Runoff Simulation, Upper Indus Basin, Hydrological Modeling, Gilgit River.