This paper examines how population change and agricultural output relate in Nigeria since 1980 and 2022. The aim of the research was to determine the trends in the fertility rates, mortality rates, net migration, and agricultural productivity; to determine both the short and the long-run determinants of agricultural productivity, and to determine the cause-effect relationship between agricultural productivity and its determinants. The results obtained with the help of various techniques such as descriptive statistics, unit root tests, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, cointegration tests, the Error Correction Model (ECM), and Granger causality tests showed that the average Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (AgTFP) was 93.76, the fertility rate was 6.11 births per woman, and the life expectancy was 48.6 years. The net migration was 63,369.58, primary school enrolment was 90% of gross enrolment and rural population constituted 62.99% of the total population. The cointegrating test proved the presence of long-term relationship between the variables. The analysis over the long term showed that net migration had a positive impact on AgTFP, whereas the effect of the rural population and the openness of the economy to trade was negative. In the short term, the result of AgTFP and fertility rate of last year influenced negatively the present AgTFP, and so did the present rural population and the past year openness of the trade. The ECM showed that it had an adjustment rate of 75.6% per annum to the long-term equilibrium. The Granger causality tests indicated that AgTFP Granger-causes fertility rates. The results highlight the complexity of the relationship between population dynamics and agricultural productivity, and therefore the need to have combined policy intervention to ensure the promotion of sustainable agricultural development in Nigeria.