Manuscript Title:

TRADE FLOWS, OPTIMAL MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND BUSINESS CYCLES SYNCHRONIZATION IN WEST AFRICA MONETARY ZONE

Author:

OPUE JOB AGBA, BASSEY ENYA NDEM, ANAGBOGU GERMAN EFFA, ACCORD AJA ACCORD, MBOTO HELEN WALTER, ENUOH REBECCA OLIVER

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.8289277

Published : 2023-08-23

About the author(s)

1. OPUE JOB AGBA - (Ph.D), Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
2. BASSEY ENYA NDEM - (Ph.D), Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
3. ANAGBOGU GERMAN EFFA - (Ph.D), Associate Professor, Department of Educational Foundation, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
4. ACCORD AJA ACCORD - (M.Sc), Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
5. MBOTO HELEN WALTER - (Ph.D), Lecturer, Department of Banking and Finance, University of Calabar, Nigeria.
6. ENUOH REBECCA OLIVER - (Ph.D), Associate Professor, Department of Business Management, University of Calabar, Nigeria.

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Abstract

This work provides an answer to the possibility of creating a second West African monetary union in West Africa. The business cycles in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) using real GDP growth within 1980-2022, detrended by Hodrick–Prescott filters were analyzed. This work also examined the effect of the level of symmetry in macroeconomic policies and the level of symmetry in trade flows on the level of synchronization of business cycles between pairs of countries in WAMZ, the seemingly unrelated regression estimation was computed on Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. The cusum of squares test indicated the absence of structural breaks in the models while the system Portmanteau test for autocorrelation indicated the absence of serial correlations up to the 10th order lag. The empirical results provide clear support for Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria to proceed in the creation of the second West African monetary union with their various currencies tied to the WAMZ-eco while also creating an enabling environment for other countries within WAMZ to join in due course. The cyclical thrift scheme for ECOWAS countries to boost industrialization and trade protection/restriction was also recommended.


Keywords

Trade-Flows, Macroeconomic Policy, Business Cycles, Synchronization.